Thursday, May 23, 2024

Lawfare Losing

Lawfare isn't working:
It’s fair to wonder whether a conviction in New York’s Stormy Daniels trial (or in any of the cases against him) could hurt Trump. We cannot know definitively until it happens, and we at least won’t have to wait indefinitely for it to occur: a verdict could come soon, as the prosecution rested its case on May 20. The case’s salacious details, however, are already out there in public view. And despite this, Trump’s numbers have rebounded. So it is easy to believe that a conviction would not change public sentiment. Indeed, on balance, it appears that the court cases now have more potential upside than downside for Trump. The depths have been plumbed in public, and Trump has recovered during it. An acquittal or mistrial could boost Trump — even an appeal, which would inevitably be more favorable to Trump, would further muddy the legal waters. In any case, Trump will be freed from the requirement that he be present at the trial and off the campaign trail.
Meanwhile, Biden will be bogged down in a polling quagmire...

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