Gut Feeling

Nate Silver's got a feeling:

"In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast," he wrote. "Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it." "Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: 'C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?'" he continued. "So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats."

Sometimes you should just trust your gut...