Winter's Edge

Waiting for der wind:

Dunkelflaute typically occurs during winter months, particularly in November, December, and January. And it appears that the projection is for slowing wind speeds over the next few decades, too. During these periods, wind turbines and solar panels produce little or no energy. Germany has tried various kinds of battery storage to get through the annual dunkelflaute, but the only thing that has really bailed out their power grid is nuclear, and burning more coal and natural gas Germany and Northern Europe have been experiencing a variation of dunkelflaute, called “wind droughts,” for the last few years, with wind speeds falling 15% or more in many regions. This has been a gradual trend since 1978. The projections for wind drought continue to get worse. Even the IPCC is forecasting slowing winds for the coming decades, saying average annual wind speeds could drop by up to 10% by 2100. A single event usually lasts up to 24 hours, with 2-10 events occurring per year, totaling 50 to 150 hours annually. Now a 12-day dunkelflaute that began in early November has German energy executives deeply concerned. .... These executives have plenty of reasons to be worried. In 2021, there was a lengthy dunkelflaute in Northern Europe and energy utility profits plummeted. The 2021 “wind drought” hit Northern Europe particularly hard, especially those countries relying most on wind energy — notably Denmark, which gets 44% of its energy from wind, and Ireland, where the share of wind in total energy production is 31%. Other European countries relying heavily on wind include Portugal (26%), Spain (24%), Germany (23%), the UK (22%), and Sweden (19%). In France, which gets most of its power from nuclear, it’s just 8%. As a result of the reduction in average wind speed, Danish energy company Ørsted reported a loss of €380 ($366) million. German energy company RWE acknowledged a 38% drop in profits last year, although this was from both its wind and solar units combined. And while executives worrying about profits is understandable, likely average Germans are worried about simpler things….such has having light and warmth during a major snowstorm.

If only they had an alternative...