Le Surge

Viva Le Pen:

Because of the French system which sees this knock-out round followed a week later by the decider, there is a specific tradition of parties issuing tactical voting guidelines to their voters and horse-trading between parties to maximise the chances of defeating the first-placed candidate. For instance, while Le Pen’s RN looks set to be the largest single party and will fight a large number of constituencies next Sunday, it will be doing so against the combined weight of votes of all other parties coalescing around a single opposing figure. This system makes the final outcome hard to predict — hence the very wide margin of error in the exit polls — and makes clear much remains to play for. President Macron has already called on the public to vote against the right next week. Marine Le Pen, leader of National Rally, speaks at the party headquarters following voting during the first round of legislative elections in Henin-Beaumont, France, on Sunday, June 30, 2024. Le Pen’s National Rally was on track to dominate the first round of France’s legislative election, dealing a major blow to President Emmanuel Macron and setting the stage for a far-right party to control the country’s government for the first time in its modern history. Photographer: Cyril Marcilhacy/Bloomberg via Getty Images It is not common, but under limited circumstances it is possible for a candidate to win outright in this round, by getting over 50 per cent of the votes cast and those votes being more than 25 per cent of the registered voters in the district. At time of writing it appears only a handful managed this feat, but among them was Marine Le Pen herself who won 58 per cent in Pas-de-Calais.

The second French Revolution starts here...